ON 6 NOVEMBER teams of medics dressed in full protective gear packed equipment into a Romanian military transport plane before pushing beds with two critically ill Covid-19 patients on the ramp and inside. As the propellers began to roar, the rear door slowly closed and the aircraft engulfed the runway towards Denmark. “There is no secret,” assures Raed Arafat, who coordinates Romania’s fight against covid: the country’s hospitals “are overflowing”. About 90 patients were evacuated to Denmark, Germany, Hungary and elsewhere. Teams of doctors are also arriving from all over Europe to help their beleaguered colleagues.

Across Europe, the number of people infected with the highly contagious Delta variant is increasing and many governments are considering or imposing new restrictions. But this wave affects some countries much more than others. From the Balkans to the Baltic countries, an arc of susceptibility has emerged, encompassing a multitude of countries with low vaccination rates.

In recent weeks, the death rate from covid-19 has reached record highs in Bulgaria, Latvia and Romania. In the week to November 8, there were 22.8 confirmed deaths in Bulgaria for every million people. In Romania the figure was 21.8 and in Latvia 18.8. Yet for the EU overall it was only 3.0. The number of cases is finally declining in these three hard-hit countries, but it is now skyrocketing in Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Ukraine.

All the crushed countries are at the bottom of the immunization ladder. Only 23% of Bulgarians and 34% of Romanians suffered a double blow. In Latvia, the proportion is 57%, but it was much lower a month ago, when the current wave took hold. In the EU overall, 66% are doubly vaccinated.

Low vaccination rates are not the result of a lack of vaccines. The arc countries have an abundant supply, but also noisy anti-vaccines. Mistrust of government and medical personnel is high. A Eurobarometer survey conducted earlier this year found that only 22% of Bulgarians and Croats, 26% of Latvians and 31% of Romanians tend to trust their government. When asked if they trust medical staff, 34% of Bulgarians replied that they did not, along with 32% of Croats, 31% of Latvians and 40% of Romanians.

It is ironic that relatively low infection levels in the summer appear to have contributed to the scale of the current epidemics. Those who had doubts about the vaccine saw little urgency in getting it, which left them vulnerable when the Delta variant hit. Of those currently hospitalized, says Dr Arafat, 92% are not vaccinated. The real share could be higher, as unknown numbers bought fake vaccination certificates. He angrily denounces anti-vax disinformation, which is often propagated by rogue doctors, Orthodox priests and far-right nationalists, with the help of “Dr Facebook”.

Inga Springe, a reporter for Re: Baltica, a news site, says that in Latvia prominent doctors have given mixed signals about vaccinations and that some politicians are promoting them through anti-vaccine sites. Bulgaria goes to the polls on November 14 for the third time this year, and politicians in this country may fear alienating anti-Vax voters.

According to Oana Popescu, director of GlobalFocus, a Romanian think tank, Romanians’ lack of enthusiasm for getting vaccinated is a direct result of what they perceive to be decades of neglect on the part of the authorities. “When the government suddenly seems to be taking care of you for the first time in 30 years, of course you get suspicious! ” she explains. Alas, it is not only Romanians who feel this. â– 

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This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the title “The Arc of Susceptibility”